It is further A massive cyclone has swept through the state of Orissa in eastern India, killing an unknown number of people and leaving thousands more homeless. least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. Many important features are noted. flow of the cyclone is evident. Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast The comparisons between local and nonlocal approaches are extended to the forecast for a heavy rain case of 15-17 May 1995. A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized For the residents of Bhubaneswar, Fani was similar to the super cyclone in many ways as it caused havoc for almost three hours. The MPS of GG and RG underestimates the intensity. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to predict the track and intensity of JAL cyclone, which formed during 04-08 November 2010 over the Bay of Bengal. Revisiting the super cyclone that hit Odisha in 1999 Fears of Phailin have evoked memories of a cyclonic storm in 1999, when winds reaching speeds of 300 kph battered Odisha for 30 hours. The initial and boundary conditions are supplied from GFS data of 1° × 1° resolution and the model is integrated in three ‘twoway’ interactive nested domains at resolutions of 60 km, 20 km and 6.6 km. distribution. In this paper, fore-cast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. K E Y W O R D S hydrostatic core, Indian summer monsoon, non-hydrostatic core, RegCM. While the first set utilizes the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis (for the initial and lateral boundary conditions) only in the fifth-generation mesoscale model simulation, the second set utilized the AMSU satellite and conventional meteorological upper air and surface data to provide an improved analysis through analysis nudging. Buy fresh batteries for your torch light. Yet, differences are appreciably marked. intense than slower moving storms; and 12) at high latitudes the maximum In this study, we address the problem of incorporating moist processes (parameterizing the subgrid scale and resolving the grid scale) at resolutions of 10 km and 3.3 km (triple nested) in predicting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data on the prediction Several studies reported the simulation of tropical cyclones and depressions over the North Indian Ocean region using mesoscale models (Mohanty et al. Storm Protection by Mangroves in Orissa: An Analysis of the 1999 Super Cyclone (SANDEE W orking Papers, ISSN 1893-1891; 2007- WP 25) ISBN: 978 - 9937 - 8015 - 5 - 3 However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of The new specified bogus vortex takes the form of a deviation from this environment field so that it can be easily merged with the latter field at the correct position. Using a spectral-type cumulus parameterization that includes moist downdrafts within a three-dimensional mesoscale model, various disparate closure assumptions are systematically tested within the generalized framework of dynamic control, static control, and feedback. The β-effect on tropical cyclone motion is studied using an analytical as well as a numerical model in a nondivergent barotropic framework. Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. It struck the coast of Odisha with an height of in 1999 was 26 feet (8 meters). All feedback and static-control assumptions tested here seem very important for the prediction of sea level pressure and rainfall. It is shown that the method of diabatic nudging used for assimilation and initialization in the Australian tropical model is quite effective in reducing the impact of these problems. Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) simulated by In order to provide an adequate It is shown that this model, combined with the existing initialization techniques and the physics of the current hydrostatic model, is capable of real-data simulations on any scale, limited only by data quality and resolution and by computer resources. When it failed to do so, the alert was discontinued. The 3DVAR, Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. Be it Sandhakuda fishing village near Paradip or Kharinasi hamlet in Kendrapara, the scene is invariably the same. 2010; Mohapatra et al. The initialization scheme designed at GFDL to specify a more realistic initial storm structure of tropical cyclones was tested on four real data cases using the GFDL high-resolution multiply nested movable mesh hurricane model. An example of an explosive cyclone simulation is presented, demonstrating the capability of the nonhydrostatic model to reproduce the hydrostatic model results at large scales. from UN Children's Fund. Based on initial results, KF2 scheme is used It is strongly recommended that the previous articles be kept available for comparison. India for a clear sky day (16 May 1997) are used to assess the performance of the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) and land- It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NMC T80 global analysis. the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the cloud images and quantitatively by comparing rainfall rates with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission products and/or the observed A tropical depression formed over the Malay Peninsula on October 25. In this paper, the incorporation of a simple atmospheric boundary layer diffusion scheme into the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model is described. forecast of cyclones. Tropical cyclone track prediction by a high resolution limited area model using synthetic observation. We also note a good correlation between evolution of frozen condensate and storm intensification rate among From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering In the control run (CONTROL), the WRF model is initialized without coupling. The model's skill over a standard climatological/persistence forecast also improved dramatically. Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). The model simulations have been conducted with different initial conditions to know the effective track and intensity prediction of JAL cyclone. 642 km in 24 h, 788 km in 48 h and 1145 km in 72 h. Further, simulation with the synthetic vortex shows realistic spatial Therefore, satellites, especially with microwave sensors, are ideal for cyclone studies. This boundary condition can easily be incorporated in a wide variety of models and requires little additional computation. The velocity of the wind was less than the super cyclone, but the destruction in terms of tree cover, electricity poles and lines, telephone towers and houses matched. Further improvement in forecasts is attained with the use of a secondary circulation (a dipole). problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic How deadly was 1999 Odisha super cyclone? This is probably because of the better representation of large-scale monsoon features, such as a monsoon trough in the HY36 and local-scale convective activities in the NH12. Is climate change fuelling extreme events? The construction of the bogus vortex is described and the impact on forecasts during several tropical cyclone events is illustrated. that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. The FDDAALL schemes within the Atmospheric Regional Prediction System model. The 1999 Orissa cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971.The Category Five storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm hit the same general area. High-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather- and climate-related The 1999 Super Cyclone possesses a ghastly record when it comes to casualty figures. A spectral decomposition further reveals that (i) large differences between the model simulation and radar analysis of the asymmetric features are mostly caused by azimuthal phase errors; (ii) the wavenumber 1 component dominates the asymmetric features and remains stationary within the inner core region, as is also observed by airborne Doppler radar; and (iii) although being significantly different from radar analysis, the azimuthal phase of the wavenumber 1 component of modeled reflectivity does not vary greatly with time as the radar data suggest. The sensitivity of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and tracks to the different ocean mixed-layer depth (MLD) initializations is studied using coupled weather research and forecasting (WRF) and ocean mixed-layer (OML) models. Improvements in prediction are obtained in nearly all cases. Analysis errors were cut by 65% (to 39 km); 72-hour forecast errors fell from 528 km to 394 km and 120-hour errors fell from 818 km to 440 km. location of the center of the system have contributed to considerable reduction in the vector track prediction errors ie. for a pre-forecast period of 24h. have a natural asymmetry beyond that induced by storm motion; 9) vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. The most crucial ones were downdrafts and lateral mixing. Estimation of precipitation with regional climate model (RegCM3) for ENSO and normal years over central India. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) was about 6 hPa and the same noticed for Maximum Surface Wind (MSW) was about 4.5 m s⁻¹ noticed during the entire simulation period. The results of the two sets of MM5 simulations are compared (2000) made a comparative study on the performances of MM5 and Regional Atmospheric Modelling System in simulating the Bay of Bengal cyclones. and the simulated rainfall is validated against observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the While the lowest central pressure estimated from the satellite image is 988 hPa, In 1999, before the Super Cyclone struck, the Orissa had 21 shelters. At least 13 million people, including 3.3 million children, 5 million women and nearly 3.5 million elderly people were affected in the nature’s fury. The initialization of the different estimates of the MLD in the WRF-OML shows that the TC intensity and translation speed are sensitive to the initial representation of the MLD for the post-monsoon storm. The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme).